TV shipments to decline 12.4% year-on-year in 2H21

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Analysis | 22 November 2021

Quarterly TV shipments for 3Q21 reached 52.51 million units, which is an 8.3% increase in QoQ but a 14.7% year-on-year decline, according to the latest TrendForce surveys.

Demand for televisions was constrained during the quarter by rising vaccination rates in various countries as well as higher retail prices for televisions, resulting in lower year-on-year shipments despite the onset of peak season. . It should be noted that TV billboard prices started to fall in August and this price drop allowed Chinese TV brands to both increase their sales during the Singles Day shopping festival (11 November) and make up for shortfalls in their annual sales targets. . Global brands, on the other hand, will not be able to capitalize on falling TV panel prices by reflecting these savings on their TV retail prices through 1Q22 due to factors such as production, transportation and adjustments. of stocks. These brands are therefore struggling to increase their TV shipping for 4Q21. Quarterly TV shipments for 4Q21 are expected to reach 59.13 million units, which is an increase of 12.6% quarter-on-quarter but a decrease of 10.3% year-on-year. TV shipments in 2H21 will therefore likely be among the lowest compared to shipments in the second half of previous years. TrendForce further indicates that the shipping performance of TV manufacturers has weakened this year as the market nears the end of the year. Stimulus checks issued in the United States led to a consistently high TV shipment to North America in 1H21 as brands maintained their TV panel purchases, pushing TV panel prices up. As the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually brought under control and daily life returns to normal in Europe and North America in 2H21, the resumption of TV sales generated by the pandemic then lost momentum. In addition, while the prices of raw materials and transport / logistics services have remained very high, the costs of manufacturing entire TVs have also risen sharply and have subsequently been passed on to consumers. Taken together, these factors quickly wiped out the market demand for televisions. TrendForce therefore expects annual TV shipments for 2021 to reach 210 million units, down 3.2% year-on-year.
With an expected annual delivery of 6.8 million units by 2021, OLED TVs have become favorites for various brands amid rising TV manufacturing costs.TV brands face various manufacturing challenges this year. Not only have panel costs, which account for the largest share of TV manufacturing costs, increased, but port congestion has also resulted in increased shipping costs and an extended delivery time before TVs can be delivered. at retail. In addition to uneven availability of various components, these aforementioned hurdles add to any risks associated with shipping brands of TV. In an effort to maximize profits, however, brands have focused their efforts on ensuring that OLED TV production remains free from disruption in an effort to maximize profits. As brands focus their sales efforts on OLED TVs, OLED TV shipments for 2021 are expected to reach 6.8 million units, an increase of 72.8% year-on-year. This growth can mainly be attributed to an increase in the supply of OLED TVs due to the increased production capacity of LGD’s production line in Guangzhou, as well as a reduction in the price difference between LCD panels and OLED panel prices due to the sharp increase in early to 1S21. . In particular, LGE is poised to occupy a leading position with a market share of over 60% and 91% year-on-year growth in its delivery of OLED TVs. In second place is Sony, which has sourced OLED panels from LGD. The Japanese company is expected to record a 53% year-over-year increase in shipments and own a 20% market share. Panasonic, on the other hand, comfortably took third place with a 7% market share. Notably, Xiaomi and Sharp are the two workhorses when it comes to shipping OLED TVs this year with explosive year-on-year growths of 900% and 140%, respectively.
Big brands will focus on high-end and large segments, while small brands will continue to steadily develop mainstream products.As demand in the television market picks up as the pandemic unfolds, TrendForce expects 45% and 55% of total annual television shipping for 2022 to occur in 1H22. and 2H22, respectively. TV shipments for 2022 are likely to reach 217 million units, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, as brands are able to aggressively increase their TV shipments thanks not only to an uninterrupted supply of panels, but also to a gradual stabilization of prices. For large brands, the focus will be on medium and large-sized products and on products with high added value. As a result, the market share of large-size TVs (including 65-inch and larger models) will for the first time exceed 20%, with mid-size TVs (40-59 inch models) remaining at 55%. to share. Although the big brands are gradually moving out of the small size segment and smaller brands will find it easier to expand their presence in emerging markets due to the gradual stabilization of prices, small size televisions (models 39 inches and below) will see their market share fall. from 1.8% next year to 25%. In any case, the main target markets for big brands and small brands will not overlap next year.

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